Don’t Try to Catch a Trend (AAPL)

One thing you will learn about trading is that what you think will happen, is not what really happens. There tends to be a lot of manipulation and head fakes. One of the major head fakes going on right now, is how people are down on Apple. People have been riding apple for the last couple of months. Why has the stock gone down?

Simply being, the stock has gone down because the stock went up so much. During 2012 and the end of 2011, the stock went from $360 to $700. That is almost a 100% gain on the stock. The stock market is both predictable and unpredictable. You will see something new everyday, while the same things happen everyday. Stocks tend to trade within ranges, they tend to gravitate towards moving lines and century lines. With that being said, when apple hit a high of $700, many market makers pick $700 as their target and sold out. When Apple hit $700 the stock market was at it peak of the year, thus when the market pulled back, so did apple.

Many hedge funds made their money on Apple for the year and wanted to lock in their profits and they sold. On top of people trying to lock in profits, yes there has been some bad news out of apple. It did miss it quarter estimates but overall its growth is insane. Apple currently has a P/E of 11.75 which i predict at this price (518) will be much lower after next earnings.

I am writing this article because I believe the fiscal cliff will resolve itself, and along with it a lot of uncertainly in the market. Once the uncertainly is gone, so are the the barriers on the market and the market will begin to take off now till the end of the year and into the first quarter of next year. You will see apple begin it raise again into their next earnings.

As we speak Apple has just hit its double bottom. I predict that once apple breaks 600 again it will fly. It will slow march now towards 600 and if it breaks it again it will make it way to new highs. You will see apple make new all time high in the 1st quarter before another brief pull back. You might not see apple hit 800 till the 3rd quarter of next year but it will hit 700 in the first three months.

And right now everyone is down on apple, except the real people who will make money on it. Everyone who got in late in 2012 got burned and those at the beginning of 2013 will be rewarded. We have hit our bottom.

Double Bottom